Beavercreek, OH — September 29, 2025 — Parallax Advanced Research has been awarded a contract under the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s (DARPA) Methodological Advancements for Generalizable Insights into Complex Systems (MAGICS) program. This award positions Parallax at the forefront of defense research, developing next-generation tools to better understand and predict the behavior of complex human systems critical to national security. The project builds on Parallax’s growing portfolio of research in cognitive modeling, artificial intelligence, and human decision-making.
MAGICS is DARPA’s ambitious initiative to overcome the limitations of current big data and machine learning approaches in modeling dynamic, evolving systems. From global economic networks to regional population dynamics, complex systems are non-linear, adaptive, and rarely behave in predictable ways. Accurately modeling these systems is essential for defense and security planners seeking to deter adversaries, anticipate crises, and support decision-making.
Why This Matters for National Security
Predicting human behavior in contested environments is one of our nation’s most urgent challenges. Misjudging the actions of populations, partners, or adversaries can lead to strategic failure. By combining cognitive science with rigorous validation methods, Parallax’s solution, CLAIRVOYANT, offers defense planners a reliable tool to foresee how social systems may evolve—and when to trust those forecasts.
“The biggest risk of relying on current modeling methods in defense is a false sense of confidence in predictions that fail in real-world, evolving systems. The danger isn’t just being wrong—it’s being confidently wrong in ways that can drive adverse national security outcomes,” said Dr. David Menager, MAGICS co-principal investigator (PI). “CLAIRVOYANT ensures decision-makers can place justified trust in its predictions by applying competency-based uncertainty measures and keeping models adaptive as conditions and adversaries change.”
Parallax’s Breakthrough Approach
Parallax’s winning proposal introduces a paradigm-shifting framework grounded in cognitive psychology. Unlike traditional approaches that assume systems eventually explore all possible states equally (ergodicity), Parallax’s framework reflects how human systems actually behave—gravitating toward “attractors,” reinforcing feedback loops, and avoiding vast portions of the state space.
By beginning with how people truly think and decide, this new technique captures the hidden drivers of group behavior, validates when predictions are reliable, and adapts across contexts as conditions evolve. For the Department of Defense, this means greater resilience against rare or novel events, improved ability to shape or deter adversary behavior, and reduced risk from faulty assumptions.
“Overcoming the current limits of modeling complex systems is important because real adversaries, economies, and populations don’t sit still. They evolve, react to being observed, and break the assumptions that make today’s models look good on paper but fail in the wild,” said Dr. Menager. “MAGICS is about moving beyond curve-fitting on big datasets to methods that can reason about open, changing systems—where the rules change, indicators drift, and signals can be misleading. That shift is mission-critical for national security because it’s the difference between chasing yesterday’s correlations and anticipating tomorrow’s behavior.”
“Most current models overlook the breadth of cognitive and behavioral differences between individuals,” said Dr. Othalia Larue, Co-PI. “Our system addresses this gap by modeling evolving cognitive states and external influences to predict changes at the individual level. By accounting for variability in how people form attitudes and integrating cognitive dynamics, the system produces richer, more accurate predictions of human outcomes.”
Parallax’s Role as a Trusted Innovator
As an independent nonprofit research institute, Parallax is uniquely positioned to convene diverse stakeholders, bridge theory and application, and deliver impartial, technically rigorous solutions. This award demonstrates confidence in Parallax’s ability to lead high-risk, high-reward research efforts with implications across the defense sector.
“This award reflects DARPA’s confidence in Parallax’s ability to deliver paradigm-shifting research,” said Dr. Matt Molineaux, director of AI/Autonomy, Intelligent Systems Division of Parallax. “Our team’s work on MAGICS will help the Department of Defense move beyond outdated assumptions and give decision-makers the tools they need to anticipate and shape complex human behavior in contested environments. As an independent nonprofit research institute, Parallax is uniquely equipped to bring together cognitive science, advanced modeling, and operational expertise to solve the nation’s toughest challenges.”
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About Parallax Advanced Research & the Ohio Aerospace Institute (OAI)
Parallax Advanced Research is a research institute that tackles global challenges through strategic partnerships with government, industry, and academia. It accelerates innovation, addresses critical global issues, and develops groundbreaking ideas with its partners. In 2023, Parallax and the Ohio Aerospace Institute, an aerospace research institute located in Cleveland, OH, formed a collaborative affiliation to drive innovation and technological advancements across Ohio and the nation. The Ohio Aerospace Institute plays a pivotal role in advancing aerospace through collaboration, education, and workforce development.